Canadian businesses have been dealing with U.S. tariffs for nearly a year, but the damage they’ve done to one of the world’s longest-standing trade relationships may have caused a permanent divide along the 49th parallel.
According to its latest omnibus survey, Probe Research found Manitobans have become increasingly pessimistic about dealing with the U.S. – and President Donald Trump, in particular.
Two-thirds of Manitobans, in fact, believe the U.S. is no longer Canada’s biggest ally and three-quarters say that any future trade deal with Trump won’t be worth the paper it’s printed on because of his long history of negotiating in bad faith.
“We don’t view our oldest friend and trading partner as a true ally at this moment. That is a fairly worrisome piece of public opinion,” says Mary Agnes Welch, a principal at Probe. “We overwhelmingly agree that President Trump is not a reliable actor or a trustworthy negotiator. We’ve all watched as one little commercial from (Ontario Premier) Doug Ford sends Trump into a tailspin.”
The Winnipeg-based research company polled 1,000 Manitobans in early December, hoping to understand how Manitobans are feeling about the state of Canada-U.S. relations at the close of a turbulent year.
Polling in the Keystone province can provide a window into the nation’s thinking because Manitobans tend to be “right in the middle” of public opinion, says Welch.
When it comes to the future of free trade with the U.S., one-half of Manitobans believe no deal is better than signing any deal. Just one-quarter of Manitobans believe that any deal is better than no deal.
“We don’t want to roll over. Perhaps we feel a little tougher and freer to be more aggressive now, because playing nice hasn’t worked that well so far,” she says, before adding, “many of us just don’t know what the right path is.”
Manitobans aren’t terribly confident that whatever trade losses that result from a reduced relationship with the U.S. will be made up with new agreements with other countries.
“We’re tepid and unsure. About 60 per cent agree (the losses will be made up) but most only agree somewhat,” she says.
“I don’t know if Canadians have quite gotten their heads around what those trading relationships will look like and if they’ll keep our economy going if we begin to rely a lot less on the U.S.”
