By Mary Agnes Welch, Partner at Probe Research
If you’re like me, you’re breathing a small, wary sigh of relief.
We’ve just come through one of the most turbulent times for business in recent memory – tariffs real and threatened, talk of annexation and deep uncertainty (that still lingers) about the stability of the global economy.
We also had one of the most dramatic and engaging federal elections I can recall, where voters thought less about household issues and more about the economic crisis facing their country.
At Probe Research, we’ve been gathering acres of data on how Manitobans are coping with all this drama.
Have tariffs already affected consumer confidence? Yes. Almost one-half of Manitobans say they’ve already seen prices rise.
Are business leaders planning to hire in the next year? No. Only 17% are planning for a larger staff.
Will we spend our tourism dollars in the States? Nope, and we’re pretty judgy about those who do. About 51 per cent of Manitobans say they would think less of someone vacationing in the U.S. right now.
With all this data, though, one of the best and most hopeful insights I had into the mood of Manitobans wasn’t from our polling or focus groups. In fact, it was the kind of anecdata I normally warn clients about. It came from a round-table discussion hosted by Economic Development Winnipeg, where business owners from different sectors just vented, one-by-one, about their tariff-related worries.
The venting sounded a lot like what we’d heard. But after that came talk of opportunities and possibilities – a feeling of, “Well, ok, jeez, maybe we haven’t been taking care of business in a few areas and this is the kick in the butt we need.”
That kick in the butt could help us finally fix some things we’ve been talking about for decades: East-West power grids and pipelines; improving the Port of Churchill, the northern rail line and transport routes in general; boosting productivity; investing in tourism so more Canadians and international visitors can explore our vast and beautiful country; and reducing interprovincial trade barriers. The list is long.
Fingers crossed, the initial drama of 2025 is behind us. Newly-elected Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, which went about as well as it could have, allowed many in the business community to breathe a small sigh of relief. It feels as though, maybe, we can start thinking about solutions now.
I hope, as we cope with the next four years, we don’t lose the local and national resolve to roll up our sleeves and fix some things on our own.
