Manitoba is a rock.
According to new polling from Leger Marketing, residents of the Keystone province are brushing aside the panic, hysteria and anger revolving around Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again trade war.
More than two in five Manitobans (41 per cent) believed the provincial economy is in “good” or “very good” shape when asked in June, up from 35 per cent in January, before the tariff talk started to heat up.
That’s ahead of the national sentiment of 37 per cent (which rose from 29 per cent at the start of 2025), and that in Ontario (33 per cent) and British Columbia (32 per cent).
“We’re pretty a resilient lot compared to the rest of the country,” says Andrew Enns, Winnipeg-based executive vice-president for Leger’s central Canada region. “A couple of big neighbours don’t feel as good about things.”
Manitobans are also bullish about their own households, with 63 per cent saying their personal finances are in “good” or “very good” shape, compared to 58 per cent across the country.
It’s possible Manitobans are buoyed by the recently-announced investments in Churchill, which will could expand shipping capacity at the northern port, and leverage the growing interest in the province’s supply of rare earth minerals, Enns says.
Of course, it’s not all lollipops and unicorns in Manitoba, Enns notes. Tariffs are still a concern and will likely continue to be given the topic receives extensive coverage in the media, while healthcare, inflation, crime and housing affordability also keep some people up at night.
Looking out six months, 13 per cent of Manitobans believe the provincial economy will improve, 38 per cent think it will remain the same while 37 per cent believe things will deteriorate. Those numbers are down slightly from January when 16 per cent said they thought the economy would improve and 33 per cent said it would stay the same.
Manitoba’s diversified economy has long meant it doesn’t lead or come up the rear in statistics or consumer sentiment. And while that doesn’t necessarily create sexy headlines, there’s a lot to be said for stability in turbulent times.
“We suffer a little bit because we don’t hit the peaks. When oil hits US$100 a barrel, the streets are paved with gold in Alberta. We don’t hit those euphoric waves. But when oil falls to US$40 a barrel, we’re not running around worried about getting a paycheque,” he says.
Leger’s economic confidence report surveyed a sample of 400 Manitobans from June 13-16. It has a margin of error of 4.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
